Many now speak of humanityβs drift towards World War III, imagining events similar to those of the 20th century. But war evolves. It will not begin with a June 1941 Barbarossa-style invasion or a Cuban Missile Crisis-style nuclear standoff. In fact, the new world war is already underway β itβs just that not everyone has recognized it yet.
For Russia, the pre-war period ended in 2014. For China, it was 2017. For Iran, 2023. Since then, war β in its modern, diffuse form β has intensified. This is not a new Cold War. Since 2022, the Westβs campaign against Russia has grown more decisive. The risk of direct nuclear confrontation with NATO over the Ukraine conflict is rising. Donald Trumpβs return to the White House created a temporary window in which such a clash could be avoided, but by mid-2025, hawks in the US and Western Europe had pushed us dangerously close again.
This war involves the worldβs leading powers: the United States and its allies on one side, China and Russia on the other. It is global, not because of its scale, but because of the stakes: the future balance of power. The West sees the rise of China and the resurgence of Russia as existential threats. Its counteroffensive, economic and ideological, is meant to put a halt to that shift.
Dmitry Trenin: World War III has already begun
— SlavicFreeSpirit (@SlavFreeSpirit) July 15, 2025
Forget dΓ©tente, Moscow must fight to the end
By Dmitry Trenin, a research professor at the Higher School of Economics and a lead research fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations. He is also a member of⦠pic.twitter.com/oq8lceJMAH
