Though most projections estimate that the object will reenter the atmosphere around May 10, unknowns about its exact shape and size β as well as the unpredictability of space weather β make some degree of uncertainty inevitable.
Itβs also unclear which portion of the vehicle is set to reenter, though researchers believe it to be the probe, or βentry capsule,β which was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus β which has an atmosphere 90 times more dense than Earthβs.
That means it could survive its unexpected trip back home, posing a small but non-zero risk to people on the ground.
The chances of Cosmos 482 causing deadly damage are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporationβs calculations, Sorge said.
Thatβs a much lower risk than some other pieces of space debris. At least a few defunct rocket parts reenter Earthβs atmosphere each year, Sorge noted, and many have carried higher odds of catastrophe.
