Though most projections estimate that the object will reenter the atmosphere around May 10, unknowns about its exact shape and size — as well as the unpredictability of space weather — make some degree of uncertainty inevitable.
It’s also unclear which portion of the vehicle is set to reenter, though researchers believe it to be the probe, or “entry capsule,” which was designed to survive the extreme temperature and pressure of landing on Venus — which has an atmosphere 90 times more dense than Earth’s.
That means it could survive its unexpected trip back home, posing a small but non-zero risk to people on the ground.
The chances of Cosmos 482 causing deadly damage are roughly 1 in 25,000, according to The Aerospace Corporation’s calculations, Sorge said.
That’s a much lower risk than some other pieces of space debris. At least a few defunct rocket parts reenter Earth’s atmosphere each year, Sorge noted, and many have carried higher odds of catastrophe.
Update:
After looping through space for 53 years, a wayward Soviet spacecraft called Kosmos-482 returned to Earth, entering the planet’s atmosphere at 9:24 a.m. Moscow time on Saturday, according to Roscosmos, the state corporation that runs the Russian space program.
